Trump's return in 2025! What does it mean for Pakistan, CPEC, and our security?
Let’s be honest. When Donald Trump won again, half the world
squeaked, the other half cheered, and in Pakistan, we all just looked at each
other and said, “Ab kya hoga?” (What now?) Because for us, this isn’t just
American drama. It’s about our roads, our power plants, our security, and
whether the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the one thing that’s
supposed to pull us out of the economic mess, survives another round of
U.S.-China tug-of-war. I’ve been following this closely, and after digging
through reports, X threads, and late-night WhatsApp forwards from policy nerds,
here’s the real talk: Trump 2.0 is a mixed bag for Pakistan. There’s an opportunity. There’s risk. And yes, a little bit of déjà vu from his first
term.
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Remember 2018? Yeah, That Tweetstorm
Trump once called Pakistan “deceitful” on Twitter (now X)
and cut $300 million in military aid. Ouch. But then he hugged Imran Khan like
an old buddy and said, “We’re friends again.” Classic Trump. Zero chill, full
drama.
Fast forward to 2025. Things are different. Shehbaz Sharif
and COAS Asim Munir flew to the U.S. in September, met with Trump before the election, and returned discussing $500 million in mineral deals from
Balochistan. Rare earths, lithium. Stuff the U.S. needs for missiles and EVs.
Trump even floated oil exploration. Pakistan has untapped reserves worth
hundreds of millions of barrels. Suddenly, we’re not just a security headache.
We’re a business opportunity. But here’s the catch: Trump hates China. Like,
really hates China. And CPEC? That’s China’s baby.
CPEC: Our Lifeline or a Liability?
Let’s not sugarcoat it. CPEC has been a godsend. 24,000 MW
of new power. Motorways. Gwadar Port. Jobs. It’s supposed to help us hit a $1
trillion economy by 2035. Phase II is kicking off now: agriculture zones, green
energy, tech parks. But it’s also a headache. Chinese workers keep getting
attacked. Projects are delayed. Beijing is not happy. In October 2024, their
ambassador basically said, “Fix security or we’re out.” And now Trump’s team,
full of China hawks like Marco Rubio, is watching. If Trump slaps 60% tariffs
on China, guess who gets squeezed? Us. Because we owe China billions. And if
the IMF (where America has the loudest voice) says, “Pay China first or no
loan,” we’re stuck.
What We Gain from Trump What We Risk
U.S. investment in minerals & oil Pressure to slow down CPEC
Possible military aid & tech Higher
debt if IMF plays hardball
Counterterrorism helps vs. TTP Alienating
China = no more easy money
Security: Nukes, TTP, and That Weird Trump Claim
Trump dropped a bomb (figuratively) on November 4: he said
Pakistan, China, and Russia are doing secret nuclear tests. Wait, what? Our DG
ISPR just smiled and said, “Classified.” Classic. Look, Pakistan’s nukes make
the world nervous. Trump’s team wants “safeguards.” Translation: They want eyes
on our arsenal. Fair? Maybe not. But if we play nice, we might get drones,
intel, or training to fight TTP, who, by the way, attacked 50% more this year,
targeting Chinese engineers. And don’t forget: Trump wants Bagram Airbase back
in Afghanistan. That’s right next to us. If he pushes too hard, it could heat
up our western border. Again.
Politics at Home: Elections, Protests, and PTI Hopes
While all this is happening, we’ve got by-elections in
Punjab on November 23 and local government polls in Quetta on December 28. PTI
is still strong. 93 independents flipped to SIC after 2024’s “rigged” claims.
Many PTI supporters think Trump might pressure the government to release Imran
Khan. Will he? Maybe. Trump likes strongmen. But our military backs Shehbaz. So
don’t hold your breath.
So, What Should Pakistan Do?
We can’t pick sides. We need both America and China. Here’s
how to play smart:
Use U.S. money to secure CPEC. Let American firms invest in
Balochistan mining. Use the cash to hire more security for Chinese projects.
Win-win.
Talk to the IMF early. Lock in the next loan before Trump’s
team starts asking, “Why are you paying China first?”
Fix security fast. More troops in Gwadar. Intelligence
sharing with China. Drone surveillance. Show Beijing we mean business.
Keep elections clean. Let ECP do its job. Less drama at home = more credibility abroad.
Looking Ahead
Trump is unpredictable. One day he’s your friend, the next
he’s tweeting fire. But Pakistan has survived worse. CPEC is our future. China
is our brother. But a little love from America, some investment, some security
help, won’t hurt. As Allama Iqbal said: “Khudi ko kar buland itna…”. Raise
yourself so high that even God asks, “What do you want? “Let’s not beg. Let’s
bargain. Because in 2025, Pakistan is no longer be just a player in the game. We’re the
board.
What do you think? Will Trump help Pakistan or hurt us more?
Drop your thoughts below.
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